How a call gets made

Every part of a call, explained on a real one from Nov 12, 2026.

1
The coin
Name, ticker, contract address (click to copy) and chain. The logos open it on DexScreener, GMGN, Axiom and Fomo. Under it: age and launchpad.
2
Market data
Price, market cap, liquidity and 24h volume, added up across every pool it trades in. One mispriced pool can't set the price. Hover the chart for any point in time.
3
Safety scan
Can you sell, can the owner mint or freeze, taxes, locks and who holds the supply. Exchange and burn wallets are counted apart from the top 10. Coins under a month old also get a launch scan: snipers, bundles, the dev's buy.
4
Social
What X and Telegram say about the coin. Coming soon.
5
Cost to sell now
What selling $100, $1K or $10K right now would cost you: price impact plus sell tax.
6
Analysis
An AI read on a fixed scorecard: momentum (-100% to +100%), liquidity risk and manipulation risk (0% to 100%), a short summary and red flags. It feeds the odds. It doesn't make the call.
7
The call
Buy, Don't buy or Wait, with three odds over the stage's window: up X% first, down Y% first, or neither. Then the measured start for coins like it, the break-even after costs, what moved the odds and the plan.

OWB$OWB

on Base

591 days old

Market data

Price: $0.008264
Market cap: $3.08M
Liquidity: $114.84K
Volume 24h: $146.56K
ATH market cap: $56.78M −95%
ATH hit: 9mo ago

1h +0.63%6h +3.01%24h +3.66%

Safety scan

79,710 holdersBubble map

Pass: Selling works
Pass: Supply is fixed
Pass: No freeze switch
Pass: Top 10 wallets hold 9%

Social

What X and Telegram say about it: coming soon.

Cost to sell now

Sell $100: 0.17%
Sell $1K: 1.7%
Sell $10K: 14.8%

Price impact and sell tax, at best.

Analysis

Momentum: +25%
Liquidity risk: 45%
Manipulation risk: 10%

OWB is an established token with a market cap of $3.1M and $115k in liquidity distributed across multiple DEXes. It boasts a very wide holder base of nearly 80k wallets with low top-holder concentration, though larger exits above $10k face notable price impact. Trading activity shows moderate, stable momentum with balanced volume and steady transaction counts over the past day.

Selling a $10,000 position incurs a 15% price impact.

Call

Wait

Risky

No clear edge yet: the odds of rising 40% first don't beat the costs.

Odds over the next week

Measured on actively traded coins a week old or more: up first 28%, down first 64%. To break even after costs, up first needs 31% (a $100 trade costs about 1.3% in and out).

Against: 79,710 holders but about $39 each: many may be bots
For: Rising over 6 and 24 hours with buyers ahead
For: Strong attention around it (our read)

What would change it: If it holds above $3.08M for a few hours with buyers ahead.

A real call, run Nov 12, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC. Not a recommendation. Run it yourself

Read for its age

A coin's age sets what counts as a move, and how long it has to make it.

Stage	Up / down first	Within	Risk
Still on its launch curve	+100% / -50%	1 day	Lottery
Under a day old	+100% / -50%	3 days	Lottery
1 to 7 days old	+60% / -35%	3 days	High risk
A week old or moreThe example	+40% / -25%	a week	Risky
$100M+ and deep liquidity	+20% / -15%	a week	Volatile

Odds from measured data

The odds start from how thousands of real coins at the same stage did, then move with what this one shows.

The start: actively traded coins a week old or more, over a week

Up first 28%Down first 64%Neither 8%

What moved it

79,710 holders but about $39 each: many may be bots
Rising over 6 and 24 hours with buyers ahead
Strong attention around it (our read)

Where it landed

Up 40% first 20%Down 25% first 51%Neither 28%

The three always add up to 100%. Signs that can be faked, like dust holders or wash volume, count less, and anything we can't read pulls the odds back toward the start.

Buy, Don't buy or Wait

A Buy doesn't need better than 50%. It needs up first to beat the break-even, the point where the trade pays for its costs.

Buy

Up first beats the break-even by a clear margin. Every Buy comes with a plan: the market cap to aim for, where the setup breaks, and when to take your initial out.

Don't buy

A trap from the safety scan, or the odds against you: down first is much more likely, or the trade loses money on average after costs.

Wait

Not enough edge yet, or too much we couldn't read. Wait always says what would change it.

The example, worked out

A $100 trade costs: 1.3%
Break-even: 31%
Up 40% first: 20%
The call: Wait

Any one of these is a Don't buy

You can't sell it, or the sell tax is over 10%
It's been flagged as rugged
The creator can still mint more or freeze wallets
A big share of the liquidity unlocks within a week
The creator or insiders are dumping right now
Under $5k of liquidity

Already holding it?

Add what you hold and where you got in. You get your profit or loss, the cost to sell, and a call on what comes next.

Buy more: Only on a clear new edge, never just because it went up.
Hold: You already paid to get in, so it takes a worse outlook than a buyer's to sell.
Sell part: Take your initial out at about 2x after costs, or trim a bag that's too big for the pool.
Sell all: When staying is likely to lose more than selling costs, or a trap shows up.

The math behind Neurolith

What every call computes, with the research behind it.

Three outcomes

o=\begin{cases}U & \text{if } p_t/p_0\ge 1+X \text{ first}\\ D & \text{if } p_t/p_0\le 1-Y \text{ first}\\ N & \text{if neither by } t=T\end{cases}

Every call asks one question: from today's price, does the coin go up $X$ first, down $Y$ first, or neither within the window $T$ ? All three depend on the stage.

The odds

\begin{aligned}P(k)&=\frac{e^{z_k}}{e^{z_U}+e^{z_D}+1}\\ z_k&=\ln\frac{b_k}{b_N}+c_k+\sum_i w_{k,i}\,x_i\end{aligned}

The odds start at the base rates $b$ , measured on real coins at the same stage, corrected by $c$ , fitted on how our own past calls turned out. Each piece of evidence $x$ moves them by its weight $w$ . The three always add up to 100%.

Expected return and break-even

\begin{aligned}\mathbb{E}[R]&=P_U X-P_D Y+P_N r_N-c\\ P_U^{*}&=\frac{(1-P_N)\,Y+c-P_N\,r_N}{X+Y}\end{aligned}

$c$ is the round trip's cost at your size, $r_N$ the usual return when neither line is hit. A Buy needs $P_U$ above the break-even $P_U^{*}$ by a margin, not above 50%.

Cost to sell

\begin{aligned}\text{impact}(s)&=\frac{s}{L/2+s}\\ \text{loss}(s)&=1-\bigl(1-\text{impact}(s)\bigr)(1-\tau)\end{aligned}

Selling $s$ dollars into a constant-product pool holding $L$ dollars of liquidity, with a sell tax $\tau$ . A best case: one thin pool loses more.

Your position

\begin{aligned}m&=\frac{\mathrm{MC}_{\text{now}}}{\mathrm{MC}_{\text{entry}}}\\ \text{PnL}&=C\,(m-1)\\ \frac{1}{m}&=f\,\bigl(1-\text{loss}(f\,C\,m)\bigr)\end{aligned}

$C$ is what you put in, $m$ how many times it has grown. $f$ is the share to sell to take your initial out after costs, solved numerically.

Checking the odds

\mathrm{BS}=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{t=1}^{N}\ \sum_{k\in\{U,D,N\}}\bigl(p_{t,k}-o_{t,k}\bigr)^2

The Brier score: each call is scored against what happened ( $o$ is 1 for the outcome that came first). Lower is better, and 40% should come true about 40% of the time.

Read the paper

Meme Coin Factories: Uncovering Large-Scale Manipulations on pump.fun

Szwajcok, Tsuchiya, Liu, Soska, Payer, Christin

A large study of pump.fun: wash trading in at least 17% of all trades, copycat coins, and a small set of creator networks behind most launches. Signs a call has to discount.

ACM CCS 2026, peer-reviewed

Sources

1.Liu, Tsyvinski, Wu. Common Risk Factors in Cryptocurrency. The Journal of Finance 77(2), 2022Peer-reviewed
2.Zaremba, Bilgin, Long, Mercik, Szczygielski. Up or down? Short-term reversal, momentum, and liquidity effects in cryptocurrency markets. International Review of Financial Analysis 78, 2021Peer-reviewed
3.Szwajcok, Tsuchiya, Liu, Soska, Payer, Christin. Meme Coin Factories: Uncovering Large-Scale Manipulations on pump.fun. ACM CCS 2026Peer-reviewed
4.Gneiting, Raftery. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 102(477), 2007Peer-reviewed
5.Brier. Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability. Monthly Weather Review 78(1), 1950Peer-reviewed
6.López de Prado. Advances in Financial Machine Learning (the triple-barrier method). Wiley, 2018Book
7.Marino, Naviglio, Tarantelli, Lillo. Predicting the success of new crypto-tokens: the Pump.fun case. 2026Preprint
8.Mongardini, Mei. A Midsummer Meme's Dream: Investigating Market Manipulations in the Meme Coin Ecosystem. 2025Preprint
9.Angeris, Kao, Chiang, Noyes, Chitra. An analysis of Uniswap markets. 2019Preprint
10.Neurolith's own measurements: 3,500 pump.fun graduates followed through each stage's window (October 2026), re-measured as new coins come in.

Checked against what happened

Every call is saved with what it saw, then scored on what the price did.

Call
Saved with everything it saw.
+1, 6, 24 hours
The real price is recorded.
End of the window
Which came first: up, down or neither.
Checked
Did 40% odds come true about 40% of the time?
Tuned
Starting odds re-measured, weights adjusted.

See it on a real coin

Paste any token's contract address and get an analysis and a conclusion with the odds, in seconds. Free, no wallet needed.

Try It Now

Reading a call

The coin

Market data

Safety scan

Social

Cost to sell now

Analysis

The call

Read for its age

Odds from measured data

Buy, Don't buy or Wait

Buy

Don't buy

Wait

Already holding it?

The math behind Neurolith

Checked against what happened

See it on a real coin